Climate Change Mitigation
As concerns the implications for Italy of the EU GHG emission reduction target of at least 20 % below 1990 levels by 2020 established by the Integrated Energy and Climate package, the effort-sharing directive translates the target for non-Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) sectors into an emission reduction target of 13 % by 2020 compared to 2005 levels, whereas the revised EU-ETS Directive establishes an overall cap to emissions from EU ETS sectors in the entire European Union, corresponding to a 21 % reduction by 2020 compared to 2005. The preliminary analysis shows that in 2020:
- according to the trend scenario, overall GHG emissions will amount to 611.4 Mt CO2-eq. corresponding to an 18.3 % increase compared to 1990 and a 6.4 % increase compared to 2005;
- emissions from the ETS sectors will amount to 255.0 Mt CO2-eq. plus 4.0 Mt CO2-eq. from aviation activities;
- emissions from non-ETS sectors will amount to be 352.4 Mt CO2-eq. according to the trend scenario, and 313.7 Mt CO2-eq. including reductions achievable through policies and measures already implemented, 38.7 Mt CO2-eq.
Taking into account additional measures already identified, which include the use of credits from project-based mechanisms but exclude emission reduction units from carbon sink activities, the remaining gap to the 2020 objective amounts to 10-18 Mt CO2-eq./year.
However, the energy projections underlying the emission scenario provided in the report date back to late 2008: they include the first effects of the economic crisis, but not the continuing general downturn of the world economy. Consideration of changes in international trade, to which the Italian industrial system is very sensitive, might result in a reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2010, 2015 and 2020, thus facilitating the achievement of both the Kyoto and the 2020 targets.
[Commonality topics] climate change
[COMMONALITY] What is the 2020 outlook?